NASCAR Predictions NEW BETA

Updated: 2025-05-16 14:55:19

Our AI model simulates each NASCAR race 10,000 times to generate predictions for race winners, driver performance, and special prop bets.

Coca-Cola 600

05/18/2025 Cup Series

Charlotte Motor Speedway, Concord, NC

600.0 miles (400 laps)

Driver Predictions

Rank Driver Car # Team Manufacturer Win % Top 5 Top 10 Avg. Finish
1
Kyle Larson
5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet 22.2% 70.6% 100.0% 4.0
2
Denny Hamlin
11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota 15.5% 61.3% 100.0% 4.7
3
Chase Elliott
9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet 13.0% 55.9% 100.0% 5.0
4
Joey Logano
22 Team Penske Ford 10.9% 55.3% 100.0% 5.2
5
William Byron
24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet 8.8% 50.1% 100.0% 5.5
6
Martin Truex Jr.
19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota 7.6% 46.1% 100.0% 5.8
7
Kyle Busch
8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet 7.2% 46.4% 100.0% 5.8
8
Ryan Blaney
12 Team Penske Ford 6.2% 42.1% 100.0% 6.0
9
Christopher Bell
20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota 4.6% 38.8% 100.0% 6.4
10
Brad Keselowski
6 RFK Racing Ford 4.0% 33.4% 100.0% 6.7

Race Prop Bets

Over 6.5 Cautions

Over 6.5 total caution periods during the race

66.2%
Less Likely More Likely
Over 15.5 Lead Changes

More than 15 lead changes during the race

62.6%
Less Likely More Likely
Margin of Victory Under 1 Second

Race will be decided by less than 1 second

32.4%
Less Likely More Likely
Pole Winner Wins Race

Driver starting from pole position wins the race

22.2%
Less Likely More Likely
Over 8.5 Different Leaders

More than 8 different drivers will lead at least one lap

0.0%
Less Likely More Likely
Chevrolet Winning Manufacturer

Any Chevrolet driver wins the race

51.1%
Less Likely More Likely
Toyota Winning Manufacturer

Any Toyota driver wins the race

27.7%
Less Likely More Likely
Ford Winning Manufacturer

Any Ford driver wins the race

21.2%
Less Likely More Likely

About Our NASCAR Predictions

How Our Model Works

Our NASCAR prediction model uses Monte Carlo simulation to generate probabilities for each race. The model:

  • Simulates each NASCAR race 10,000 times
  • Accounts for driver's statistics, recent performance, and team resources
  • Factors in track type compatibility (superspeedway, short track, road course)
  • Considers manufacturer performance trends
  • Adjusts for starting position advantages/disadvantages
  • Calculates win probability, top finishes, and average finish position
  • Generates special prop bets unique to each race

Betting with Our Predictions

When using our predictions for betting, consider:

  • Compare our win percentages to implied odds from sportsbooks
  • Look for value in prop bets where our model differs from the market
  • Don't focus solely on favorites; sometimes value is in mid-tier drivers
  • Consider betting on top-5 or top-10 finishes for more consistent results
  • NASCAR races can be unpredictable with crashes and mechanical failures
  • Track-specific expertise is valuable - some drivers excel at certain tracks
  • Weather conditions can significantly impact race outcomes