How to Bet on Sports

Learn the fundamentals of sports betting, how to interpret our predictions, and develop smarter betting strategies with this comprehensive guide.

Topics
Betting Fundamentals Understanding Probabilities Reading Odds Value Betting Strategies Bankroll Management

Betting Fundamentals

What is Sports Betting?

Sports betting involves predicting sports results and placing a wager on the outcome. The types of bets can vary widely, but they all involve risking money on an event with an uncertain outcome in the hopes of winning additional money.

Common Bet Types

  • Moneyline: Betting directly on which team will win
  • Point Spread: Betting on the margin of victory
  • Totals (Over/Under): Betting on the combined score of both teams
  • Futures: Betting on longer-term outcomes (season champions, etc.)
  • Props: Betting on specific events within a game (player performance, etc.)

The House Edge

Bookmakers build a margin into their odds, known as the "vig" or "juice." This is essentially how they make money. For example, in a coin flip scenario (true 50/50 odds), rather than offering even money (2.0 in decimal), bookmakers might offer 1.91 on both sides.

Key Point: To be profitable in the long run, bettors need to find "value" - situations where the odds offered are better than the true probability of an outcome.

Understanding Probabilities

Win Probability

Win probability represents the estimated chance a team has of winning a game. Our model calculates win probability by:

  • Analyzing historical performance data
  • Factoring in home-field advantage
  • Considering lineup changes and injuries
  • Running 10,000+ Monte Carlo simulations

A win probability of 65% means that in our simulated outcomes, the team won approximately 65% of the time.

Implied Probability

Implied probability is the conversion of betting odds into a percentage. It represents what the sportsbook "thinks" is the likelihood of an outcome.

Formula for American Odds

  • Negative odds: Implied Probability = |Odds| / (|Odds| + 100)
  • Positive odds: Implied Probability = 100 / (Odds + 100)

Reading Odds

American Odds Format

American odds are displayed in two formats:

  • Negative odds (e.g., -110): The amount you need to bet to win $100. Example: -110 means you need to bet $110 to win $100 (plus your stake back).
  • Positive odds (e.g., +220): The amount you win if you bet $100. Example: +220 means a $100 bet would win $220 (plus your stake back).
American Odds Decimal Odds Implied Probability
-110 1.91 52.4%
+100 2.00 50.0%
-150 1.67 60.0%
+220 3.20 31.3%

Point Spreads & Totals

Point spreads and totals typically have odds associated with them, usually around -110. The spread itself is the handicap given to the underdog.

Examples

  • Lakers -5.5 (-110): Lakers must win by 6 or more points
  • Celtics +5.5 (-110): Celtics must lose by 5 or fewer points (or win)
  • Total O/U 220.5 (-110): Bet on combined score being over or under 220.5 points

Value Betting Strategies

What is "Value"?

"Edge" or "Value" in betting refers to the difference between our model's predicted probability and the implied probability from betting odds.

Example: If our model gives Team A a 60% chance to win, but the betting odds imply only a 50% chance, there's a 10% edge in betting on Team A.

A positive edge doesn't guarantee a win on any single bet, but over time, bets with positive expected value tend to be profitable.

Edge Calculation

The formula for calculating betting edge is:

Edge = (Decimal Odds × Our Probability) - 1

A positive result indicates positive expected value.

On SportsSimAI, we do this calculation for you. Any bet where our model shows a significant positive edge is highlighted in our Value Picks section.

Bankroll Management

The Kelly Criterion

The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that helps determine the optimal size of a series of bets to maximize the logarithm of wealth.

Kelly Formula

Optimal Bet Size = (bp - q) / b
  • b = the decimal odds - 1
  • p = the probability of winning
  • q = the probability of losing (1 - p)
Important: Many professional bettors use "fractional Kelly" (e.g., half or quarter Kelly) to reduce variance in their bankroll.

Practical Bankroll Rules

  • Only bet what you can afford to lose
  • Risk between 1-5% of your bankroll on any single bet
  • Adjust bet sizes based on your confidence and edge
  • Track all your bets to analyze performance
  • Never chase losses with bigger bets

Responsible Gambling Disclaimer

SportsSimAI provides predictions for informational and educational purposes only. Please bet responsibly and be aware of your local gambling laws and restrictions. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please seek help.