OKC at DEN
NBA • 7:00 PM ET
Projected Winner
OKC
61%
Win Probability
Projected Score
114.6
VS
61%
39%
OKC
vs
DEN
Projected Total:
220.0
DEN
39%
Win Probability
Projected Score
105.4
Team Props
OKC Over 110.5 Points
Projection: 114.6 points (Over by 4.1)
-110
DEN Under 112.5 Points
Projection: 105.4 points (Under by 7.1)
-110
Race to 20 Points: DEN
Projection: 57% probability of DEN reaching 20 first
-105
Sportsbook Odds
| Sportsbook | DEN | OKC | Last Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betmgm | 401769978.0 | -10.0 | 2025-05-16 03:10 |
| Caesars | 401769996.0 | 3.0 | 2025-05-16 03:10 |
| Draftkings | 401769983.0 | 8.0 | 2025-05-16 03:10 |
| Fanduel | 401769985.0 | 11.0 | 2025-05-16 03:10 |
| Pointsbet | 401769995.0 | 11.0 | 2025-05-16 03:10 |
Player Props
Star Player Over 26.5 Points
Projection: 28.3 points (Over by 1.8)
-110
Top Shooter Over 4.5 Three-Pointers
Projection: 4.2 three-pointers (Under by 0.3)
+120
Team MVP Triple-Double
Projection: 23% triple-double probability (Fair odds: +335)
+225
Prediction Analysis
Prediction Trend Analysis
Risk Rating:
5
Home Win Probability Trend
Away Win Probability Trend
Total Points Trend
What does this mean?
Our trend analysis tracks how predictions change over time as new data becomes available. The risk rating (1-10) indicates how uncertain the prediction is, with higher numbers meaning more risk.
The OKC have a 61% chance to win against the DEN.
After running 10,000 simulations through our NBA analytics model, we've identified a clear advantage for the OKC with a 61% win probability. Here's what's driving this prediction:
- Offensive Efficiency: The OKC are operating at 117.3 points per 100 possessions, which outpaces the DEN's defensive rating by 5.2 points.
- Three-Point Shooting: The OKC's three-point shooting has been exceptional lately at 38.7%, creating superior spacing that will stress the DEN's perimeter defense.
- Rebounding Edge: Our model projects a +6 rebounding advantage for the OKC, providing crucial second-chance opportunities and limiting the DEN's transition offense.
- Tempo Control: The OKC excel at playing at their preferred pace of 99.5 possessions per game, which statistically favors their style against the DEN.
Watch for the OKC to establish their rhythm early and potentially force the DEN to adjust their defensive scheme. Based on our model, the line value appears to favor betting on the OKC in this matchup.