TOR at FLA
NHL • 7:00 PM ET
TOR
4%
Win Probability
Projected Score
2.1
VS
4%
96%
TOR
vs
FLA
Projected Total:
7.0
Projected Winner
FLA
96%
Win Probability
Projected Score
4.9
Team Props
TOR Over 3.5 Goals
Projection: 2.1 goals (Under by 1.4)
+140
FLA Under 2.5 Goals
Projection: 4.9 goals (Over by 2.4)
+110
Both Teams to Score
Projection: 82% probability of both teams scoring
-130
Sportsbook Odds
| Sportsbook | FLA | TOR | Last Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betmgm | 401769951.0 | 10.0 | 2025-05-16 15:32 |
| Caesars | 401769949.0 | 7.0 | 2025-05-16 15:32 |
| Draftkings | 401769941.0 | 1.0 | 2025-05-16 15:32 |
| Fanduel | 401769954.0 | -5.0 | 2025-05-16 15:32 |
| Pointsbet | 401769947.0 | 13.0 | 2025-05-16 15:32 |
Player Props
Star Player Over 1.5 Points
Projection: 1.8 points (Over by 0.3)
+150
Top Scorer Anytime Goalscorer
Projection: 42% goal probability (Fair odds: +138)
-110
Team Captain Over 3.5 Shots
Projection: 4.1 shots (Over by 0.6)
-135
Prediction Analysis
Prediction Trend Analysis
Risk Rating:
5
Home Win Probability Trend
Away Win Probability Trend
Total Points Trend
What does this mean?
Our trend analysis tracks how predictions change over time as new data becomes available. The risk rating (1-10) indicates how uncertain the prediction is, with higher numbers meaning more risk.
The FLA have a 96% chance to win against the TOR.
Based on our sophisticated NHL simulation model that ran this matchup 10,000 times, the FLA have a significant 96% edge over the TOR. Our analysis reveals several key factors working in their favor:
- Special Teams Efficiency: The FLA's power play is converting at an above-average rate (24.5%), while their penalty kill has been stifling opponents at 86.3% effectiveness.
- Goaltending Advantage: The FLA's expected starter has posted a .923 save percentage over their last five starts compared to the TOR's goaltender at .902.
- Puck Possession Metrics: Advanced analytics show the FLA controlling play with a 54.2% Corsi-For percentage in their recent games, indicating stronger territorial control.
- Rest Factor: The FLA enter this game with a more favorable rest situation, which our model indicates adds approximately 1.5 percentage points to their win probability.
Look for the FLA to establish their forecheck early and capitalize on their superior special teams. This matchup presents betting value on the FLA considering our model's win probability exceeds the implied odds from sportsbooks.