ARI at SF
MLB • 7:00 PM ET
Projected Winner
ARI
59%
Win Probability
Projected Score
5.9
VS
59%
41%
ARI
vs
SF
Projected Total:
11.0
SF
41%
Win Probability
Projected Score
5.1
Team Props
ARI Over 4.5 Runs
Projection: 5.9 runs (Over by 1.4)
-110
SF Under 5.5 Runs
Projection: 5.1 runs (Under by 0.4)
+120
First Inning - Any Runs Scored
Projection: 58% probability of run(s) in 1st inning
-125
Sportsbook Odds
| Sportsbook | SF | ARI | Last Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betmgm | 401695556.0 | -8.0 | 2025-05-16 15:32 |
| Caesars | 401695547.0 | 13.0 | 2025-05-16 15:32 |
| Draftkings | 401695544.0 | -13.0 | 2025-05-16 15:32 |
| Fanduel | 401695540.0 | 11.0 | 2025-05-16 15:32 |
| Pointsbet | 401695551.0 | 9.0 | 2025-05-16 15:32 |
Player Props
Player Home Run
Projection: 18% chance (Fair odds: +455)
+320
Starting Pitcher Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Projection: 6.8 strikeouts (Over by 1.3)
-125
Lead-off Hitter Over 1.5 Total Bases
Projection: 1.7 total bases (Over by 0.2)
+110
Prediction Analysis
Prediction Trend Analysis
Risk Rating:
5
Home Win Probability Trend
Away Win Probability Trend
Total Points Trend
What does this mean?
Our trend analysis tracks how predictions change over time as new data becomes available. The risk rating (1-10) indicates how uncertain the prediction is, with higher numbers meaning more risk.
The ARI have a 59% chance to win against the SF.
After running 10,000 statistical simulations of this matchup, our advanced MLB model gives the ARI a substantial 59% edge. Here's why:
- Pitching Advantage: The ARI's starting pitcher has shown excellent command over the last 30 days with a 3.42 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) compared to surface statistics. Their pitch mix effectiveness against the SF's current lineup is particularly favorable with a 26.5% whiff rate.
- Park Factors: Today's venue slightly favors the ARI's offensive profile with a park factor of 108. The park dimensions align well with their hitters' spray charts, potentially turning warning track flyouts into extra-base hits.
- Bullpen Analysis: The ARI's high-leverage relievers have been significantly more effective than the SF's bullpen, with a 0.94 WHIP in save situations over the last two weeks versus 1.32 for the opposing bullpen.
- Batting Order Optimization: Recent lineup adjustments have improved the ARI's expected run production by 0.7 runs per game, creating favorable matchups against the opposing pitcher's particular weaknesses in 62% of plate appearances.
While baseball inherently carries more variance than other sports, making upsets more common, our model's 59% confidence level in the ARI is significantly higher than the implied probability from current betting markets, indicating strong value.